Earth Impact Effects Program

Robert Marcus, H. Jay Melosh, and Gareth Collins

Please note: the results below are estimates based on current (limited) understanding of the impact process and come with large uncertainties; they should be used with caution, particularly in the case of peculiar input parameters. All values are given to three significant figures but this does not reflect the precision of the estimate. For more information about the uncertainty associated with our calculations and a full discussion of this program, please refer to this article

Your Inputs:

Distance from Impact: 3750.00 km ( = 2330.00 miles )
Projectile diameter: 199.00 km ( = 124.00 miles )
Projectile Density: 1500 kg/m3
Impact Velocity: 22.00 km per second ( = 13.70 miles per second )
Impact Angle: 45 degrees
Target Density: 1000 kg/m3
Target Type: Liquid water of depth 8.0 km ( = 5.0 miles ), over crystalline rock.


Energy before atmospheric entry: 1.50 x 1027 Joules = 3.58 x 1011 MegaTons TNT
The average interval between impacts of this size is longer than the Earth's age.
Such impacts could only occur during the accumulation of the Earth, between 4.5 and 4 billion years ago.

Major Global Changes:

The Earth is not strongly disturbed by the impact and loses negligible mass.
The impact does not make a noticeable change in the tilt of Earth's axis (< 5 hundreths of a degree).
Depending on the direction and location of impact, the collision may cause a change in the length of the day of up to 7.52 seconds.
The impact does not shift the Earth's orbit noticeably.

Crater Dimensions:

What does this mean?

The crater opened in the water has a diameter of 932 km ( = 578 miles ).

For the crater formed in the seafloor:
Transient Crater Diameter: 557 km ( = 346 miles )
Transient Crater Depth: 197 km ( = 122 miles )

Final Crater Diameter: 1270 km ( = 791 miles )
Final Crater Depth: 2.55 km ( = 1.58 miles )
The crater formed is a complex crater.
The volume of the target melted or vaporized is 8.53e+06 km3 = 2.05e+06 miles3
Roughly half the melt remains in the crater, where its average thickness is 35 km ( = 21.7 miles ).

Thermal Radiation:

What does this mean?

Time for maximum radiation: 1.73 minutes after impact

Visible fireball radius: 1210 km ( = 754 miles )
The fireball appears 73.5 times larger than the sun
Thermal Exposure: 2.16 x 1010 Joules/m2
Duration of Irradiation: 8.26 hours
Radiant flux (relative to the sun): 725

Effects of Thermal Radiation:

Seismic Effects:

What does this mean?

The major seismic shaking will arrive approximately 12.5 minutes after impact.
Richter Scale Magnitude: 12.3 (This is greater than any earthquake in recorded history)
Mercalli Scale Intensity at a distance of 3754 km:


What does this mean?

The ejecta will arrive approximately 20.3 minutes after the impact.
At your position there is a fine dusting of ejecta with occasional larger fragments
Average Ejecta Thickness: 16.2 meters ( = 53.3 feet )
Mean Fragment Diameter: 626 microns ( = 24.6 thousandths of an inch )

Air Blast:

What does this mean?

The air blast will arrive approximately 3.16 hours after impact.
Peak Overpressure: 2.92e+06 Pa = 29.2 bars = 415 psi
Max wind velocity: 1350 m/s = 3020 mph
Sound Intensity: 129 dB (Dangerously Loud)
Damage Description:

Tsunami Wave:

What does this mean?

The impact-generated tsunami wave arrives approximately 3.7 hours after impact.

Tsunami wave amplitude is between: 993.0 meters ( = 3260.0 feet) and 2.0 km ( = 1.2 miles).

Tell me more...

Click here for a pdf document that details the observations, assumptions, and equations upon which this program is based. It describes our approach to quantifying the important impact processes that might affect the people, buildings, and landscape in the vicinity of an impact event and discusses the uncertainty in our predictions. The processes included are: atmospheric entry, impact crater formation, fireball expansion and thermal radiation, ejecta deposition, seismic shaking, and the propagation of the atmospheric blast wave.

Recent improvements in the airblast calculation are described here.

Earth Impact Effects Program Copyright 2004, Robert Marcus, H.J. Melosh, and G.S. Collins
These results come with ABSOLUTELY NO WARRANTY