Please note: the results below are estimates based on current (limited) understanding of the impact process and come with large uncertainties; they should be used with caution, particularly in the case of peculiar input parameters. All values are given to three significant figures but this does not reflect the precision of the estimate. For more information about the uncertainty associated with our calculations and a full discussion of this program, please refer to this article
- Distance from Impact: 30.00 km ( = 18.60 miles )
- Projectile diameter: 45.00 meters ( = 148.00 feet )
- Projectile Density: 2800 kg/m3
- Impact Velocity: 12.70 km per second ( = 7.90 miles per second )
- Impact Angle: 45 degrees
- Target Density: 1000 kg/m3
- Target Type: Liquid water of depth 3.8 km ( = 2.4 miles ), over crystalline rock.
- Energy before atmospheric entry: 1.08 x 1016 Joules = 2.58 MegaTons TNT
- The average interval between impacts of this size somewhere on Earth is 610.2 years
Major Global Changes:
- The Earth is not strongly disturbed by the impact and loses negligible mass.
- The impact does not make a noticeable change in the tilt of Earth's axis (< 5 hundreths of a degree).
- The impact does not shift the Earth's orbit noticeably.
- The projectile begins to breakup at an altitude of 51500 meters = 169000 ft
- The projectile bursts into a cloud of fragments at an altitude of 9410 meters = 30900 ft
- The residual velocity of the projectile fragments after the burst is 4.73 km/s = 2.94 miles/s
- The energy of the airburst is 9.31 x 1015 Joules = 2.22 x 100 MegaTons.
- No crater is formed, although large fragments may strike the surface.
- What does this mean?
The air blast will arrive approximately 1.59 minutes after impact.
- Peak Overpressure: 4690 Pa = 0.0469 bars = 0.666 psi
- Max wind velocity: 10.8 m/s = 24.2 mph
- Sound Intensity: 73 dB (Loud as heavy traffic)
- What does this mean?
- The impact-generated tsunami wave arrives approximately 9.8 minutes after impact.
- Tsunami wave amplitude is less than 1.6 meters ( = 5.3 feet).
Tell me more...
Click here for a pdf document that details the observations, assumptions, and equations upon which this program is based. It
describes our approach to quantifying the important impact processes that might affect the people, buildings, and landscape in the
vicinity of an impact event and discusses the uncertainty in our predictions. The processes included are: atmospheric entry, impact
crater formation, fireball expansion and thermal radiation, ejecta deposition, seismic shaking, and the propagation of the atmospheric
Earth Impact Effects Program Copyright 2004, Robert Marcus, H.J. Melosh, and G.S. Collins
These results come with ABSOLUTELY NO WARRANTY